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Nobody Priced a July Hike: Oil Did It for Them.

Brent touched $100 Thursday, the first time since late May, and the rates complex repriced behind it: July 29 went from under 12% to 38%, September from 53% to 82%, and the 10-year cleared 4.7%. Last week's CPI relief lasted six days. Oil ate it.

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Gainers & Losers

Theoriq (THQ) topped the board at +112.79% this week, recovering off its July 2 all-time low on thin volume. Euler (EUL) jumped 92.8% after an Upbit listing caught short sellers offside. DIA rode a sector-wide bid for oracle tokens to +91.92%. Meanwhile on the other side, DeXe (DEXE) fell −92.13%, still unwinding from its $48.89 peak after team-linked wallets sent $6.2 million to Binance on July 21 and rug-pull talk took over.

Theoriq THQ

$0.023 ▴ 123.15%

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Euler EUL

$1.82 ▴ 89.87%

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DIA DIA

$0.16 ▴ 61.20%

get DIA

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WHAT SHAPED THE MARKET

BitMEX Got Sued the Day It Announced Its Own Funeral

The exchange shuts down September 23. On Thursday, BKX Services and David Namdar filed a class action in SDNY saying BitMEX allegedly engineered the forced liquidations that cost them 622.66 BTC, then swept what was left of the collateral into its own insurance fund, roughly $60 million, on the way out the door.

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CLARITY Collapsed into Name-Calling

Seven Democratic senators rejected the merged draft on July 22. Gallego, one of two Democrats who voted it out of committee, told Politico the version that came back was a "piece of sh*t" and not a serious effort. He's writing a counterproposal with Thom Tillis now. Sixty votes means roughly seven Democrats, and Thune doesn't expect any of it to move before recess.

Crypto Ignored an $800 Billion AI Wipeout

Worst day for the Magnificent Seven since April 2025, after Alphabet and Tesla spooked investors over AI spending. Alphabet raised 2026 capex guidance to $195–205 billion from $180–190 billion. Bitcoin fell less than 1%. It’s traded as a chip-cycle proxy for months, and this week it didn't.

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ETF Money Came Back, Barely

ETF flows account for something like 45% of weekly Bitcoin price moves, and creations and redemptions are mechanical: spot bought, spot sold, whether or not anyone likes the price.

$273 million came back over two weeks. $8 billion left over the previous eight. Analysts want a clean break above $65,000–65,500 before they'll call it an uptrend, which is a polite way of saying that selling pressure easing isn't the same as demand showing up.

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